Page 21 - Plastics News September 2020

Global Oil Industry Threatened By Projected Fall In Plastic Demand

With policy around the world pushing for reductions in half the capital cost, half the amount of feedstock,
plastic usage and waste, the pressure on the 700,000 additional jobs and 80 per cent less plastic
petrochemical sector is expected to grow says a report pollution,” said Yoni Shiran, lead author of Breaking the
Rob Cole Plastic Wave.
A new report by think tank Carbon Tracker and Plastic waste policy
consultancy SYSTEMIQ has found that global efforts to With policy around the world pushing for reductions in
tackle plastic waste could result in £300 billion of plastic usage and waste, the pressure on the
stranded petrochemical assets for the oil industry as it petrochemical sector is expected to grow. In the EU,
bets on sustained demand for plastics to offset falling plastic waste has been made a priority with the launch of
demand for fossil-based fuels and energy. The report, its Plastics Strategy in 2018, which aims to build markets
entitled 'The Future's Not in Plastics', finds that virgin for recycled plastic, while reducing plastic waste and
plastic growth could fall from four per cent per year to limiting the use of single-use plastics. The European
below one per cent, with overall demand peaking in Parliament has also voted to ban some single-use
2027. Such a situation could lead to huge losses for plastics, which would stop products such as straws and
investors already facing historically low plastic prices cotton buds being sold on the EU market. Looking ahead,
due to overcapacity. The industry plans to expand the a tax on plastics is due to begin in the EU in January 2021,
supply of virgin plastics by a quarter over the next five where member states will have to pay €800 per tonne of
years at a cost of £300 billion to compensate for falling non-recycled plastic packaging waste into the EU's
demand for fossil fuels in transport and energy. general budget. This focus on plastic waste has been
brought into even sharper relief by China's ban on the
Governments and businesses around the world have
pledged action against plastic waste and the import of post-consumer plastics at the start of 2018,
proliferation of single-use plastics, which Carbon with countries around the world having to wake up to the
need to take action at home with the closure of the
Tracker estimates the societal externality cost in terms
Chinese market and saturation of alternative
of carbon dioxide, associated health costs from
emissions, collection costs and ocean pollution to be destinations.
around £760 per tonne, or £256 billion, a year. 'Delusional narrative'
BP and the International Energy Agency estimate that Sian Sutherland, A Plastic Planet co-founder,
plastics demand will be the largest driver of oil demand commented: "Sometimes it feels like we are trying to
growth in the coming years, making up 95 to 45 per cent turn the plastic tide one thimble at a time; and then a
of growth to 2040 respectively. The levels of plastic report like this proves that all our collective efforts are
waste in the environment are gaining more and more worth it."For far too long there has been this delusional
recognition and the need for action is becoming clearer, narrative coming from the fossil fuel industry to invest
with a recent report by The Pew Charitable Trusts and hundreds of billions of pounds to grow the supply of
SYSTEMIQ – 'Breaking the Plastic Wave' – estimating that virgin plastics by a quarter over the next five years. This
the amount of plastic in the oceans could triple by 2040 is all in the name of compensating for the impact of
without concerted action from governments. “Remove clean energy technologies which are driving their profits
the plastic pillar holding up the future of the oil industry, down. "
and the whole narrative of rising oil demand collapses,” It's a prime example of backward thinking from these oil
said Kingsmill Bond, Carbon Tracker Energy Strategist companies to ignore the mass movement against plastic
and report lead author.
pollution and believe their future wealth lies in this
Climate change aspects of plastic are also set to impact toxic, indestructible material which will last on the
the oil industry, with governments making moves to planet for centuries and is crucially something people no
transition towards net-zero economies. The analysis longer want. "Governments around the world are
finds that with CO2 produced at every stage of the starting to take action to cut plastic, organisations too,
plastic value chain, including being burnt, buried or and the public are making themselves heard. Perhaps
recycled, plastic releases around twice as much CO2 as the major oil companies should invest in cleaner
producing a tonne of oil. “There are huge benefits in the alternatives and place their eggs in a different basket
change from the current linear system to a more circular which won't leave a lasting impact on the planet for
one. You can have all the functionality of plastics but at future generations to come."

September 2020 21 Plastics News