Page 62 - Plastic News Issue August 2025
P. 62
BUSINESS NEWS
Price response with greater certainty, armed with the knowl-
edge that crude oil and refined products have
exemptions.
And despite a raft of grim forecasts in April, the
absence of a major global recession has lifted
hopes that the world economy can withstand
higher tariffs. Nonetheless, markets remain ex-
posed to an accelerating trade slowdown.
Although many tariffs have settled lower than
proposed rates, the world economy is set to
take a hit. According to S&P Global Commodity
Insights analysts, GDP will grow at 2.4% in 2025
-- its slowest rate in 2025 since the 2008-9 fi-
nancial crash and COVID-19 pandemic.
As a result, world oil demand growth is expected
to reach 635,000 b/d of in 2025, based on Com-
modity Insights analytics, less than half the 1.3
million b/d projected before Trump's April tariff
announcements. Downgrades reflect weaker-
than-expected consumption in the US, China,
the Middle East and Eurasia.
If the outlook deteriorates, key growth hubs
even see tip into contraction, the International
Energy Agency has warned, observing mount-
Unlike in April, when the first tariff announce- ing pressure on countries like Brazil, India and
ments triggered a global market meltdown and Singapore.
Brent crude prices shed 19%, markets have held
ground. India, a key engine of world oil demand growth,
has already seen consumption growth slow to
After closing at $66.8/b Aug. 6, ICE Brent front- "just a trickle," the IEA said in its July oil market
months crude futures fluctuated Aug. 7 between report, slashing its 2025 oil demand forecast by
a range of around $66.5/b to $66.5/b. Those 90,000 b/d.
levels remain well above the sub-$60/b price
markets had flirted with in April, and comfortably The world's largest independent traders have
higher than recent multiyear lows of $59.65/b echoed a slowdown. Glencore, which reported
May 5. its half-year results Aug. 6, saw an 88% drop in
its energy and steelmaking coal trade year over
This time, traders have approached US tariffs year. Trafigura saw turnover stay mostly flat,
62 PLASTICS NEWS August 2025
